Growing confidence

Oaklins Netherlands Newsletter | Q2 2025

Mid-market momentum in the Netherlands and across Europe continues to outpace expectations, defying a backdrop of global uncertainty.

Macro update

While concerns remain over the slowdown in global economic activity, unresolved trade agreements, geopolitical tensions, and the long- term effects of tariffs, macroeconomic indicators across the Euro Area have shown notable resilience thus far.

M&A update

Despite this setting, the Dutch M&A market has demonstrated strong resilience in 2025, with 289 deals announced in Q2, a notable increase from the 263 deals recorded in the same period last year. A key driver of the strong M&A performance in Q2 2025 was the uptick in private equity activity, accounting for 66 transactions compared to 39 transactions in Q1.

Debt update

Despite a volatile start, Q2 2025 ultimately offered a constructive environment for borrowers. While financing conditions remain attractive by historical standards, shifting market drivers continue to impact lender behaviour, terms, and timelines. This includes a rebalancing of debt instrument preferences, driven by a more cautious macro narrative and increasing divergence between sectors and borrower profiles.

Equity capital markets update

European stock markets continued their upward trajectory in H1 2025. Whilst macroeconomic indicators, particularly in Southern Europe, continue to trend positively, the threat of trade tariffs triggered a temporary sell-off in the early spring. As these tariff threats eased, equity capital markets rebounded, further supported by strong commitments to long-term investment in European defense and infrastructure. Looking ahead, we anticipate continued volatility in European equity capital markets throughout the second half of 2025.

Valuation update

Valuation levels remain stable despite global geopolitical uncertainty. The median transaction multiples in Europe edged up slightly in Q2 2025 to 10.0x, from 9.9x in Q1.

Mid-market momentum in the Netherlands and across Europe continues to outpace expectations, defying a backdrop of global uncertainty. Q2 2025 marked the third most active quarter in the past three years when it comes to deal activity, with private equity and the lower midmarket accounting for a disproportionate share of deal flow. A supportive financing environment and stable valuations have created fertile ground, particularly for entrepreneurs and sponsors, to explore strategic exits. At the same time, innovations such as stapled financing are reshaping competitive dynamics, giving buyers greater speed and certainty while empowering sellers with control. Despite persistent macro headwinds, from trade tariffs to central bank inflection points, the M&A landscape is stabilizing. Valuations are holding firm, credit markets remain constructive, capital is both abundant and patient, and equity markets continue to rise. As we have entered the second half of the year, confidence is growing. For well-prepared sellers and decisive buyers, the window of opportunity is opening wider. FRANK DE HEK, MANAGING PARTNER

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