Opportunities amid uncertainty

Oaklins Netherlands Corporate Newsletter | Q3 2026

In-depth analyses, forward-looking insights and highlights of recent leading transactions.

Macro update

The Dutch economy grew by 0.6% in the second quarter. Economic sentiment also recovered, moving back above the neutral threshold. However, the European outlook remains moderate due to higher energy prices and renewed inflationary pressure. The euro area economy is expected to grow by 0.9%, followed by a modest recovery in 2027.

M&A update

With 286 transactions, the Dutch M&A market remained at a healthy level in Q3. Although quarterly deal volume was lower than in Q2, the number of deals in the first nine months of 2026 was 2% higher than in the same period last year. The decline was mainly driven by private equity, while strategic buyer activity remained broadly stable.

Debt update

Capital remains available, but financing processes require more preparation. Higher interest costs, lower leverage and more demanding credit committees are widening the gap between initial indications and deliverable financing terms. Revenue visibility, cash generation and debt service capacity are playing an increasingly important role in the credit approval process.

Equity capital markets update

European equity markets developed unevenly. The AEX gained 3.2% in Q3 and was up to 17.2% over the first nine months of the year, partly driven by technology and semiconductor stocks. The S&P Europe 350 declined by 1.2% during the quarter.

Valuation update

The median European transaction multiple increased slightly to 9.3x EV/EBITDA, compared with 9.2x in Q2 and 8.6x a year earlier. Strategic buyers paid higher multiples on average, while financial investors became more selective due to higher financing costs and return requirements. Earnings quality, scale, growth prospects and strategic relevance remain key drivers of premium valuations.